The peak will be reached by the mid-2060s, after which the world's population will begin to decline
The world's population will peak at 9.7 billion by 2064 and decline to 8.8 billion by the end of the century, according to a study by the University of Washington in Seattle and published in the Lancet.
The researchers say that in 23 countries, including Japan, Spain, Italy and Ukraine, the population will be halved, while in sub-Saharan Africa, on the contrary, it will triple. Demographers predict that by 2100 there will be more older people than younger people. Specifically, there will be 2.4 billion people over the age of 65 in the world and only 1.7 billion under the age of 20.
Increased access to contraception and improved educational attainment of women and girls are identified as the main factors contributing to population decline. If these trends do not continue, the population will continue to grow.
Fertility rates are also projected to decline from 4.6 births per woman (as of 2017) to 1.7 by 2100. If this decline in fertility does not occur, overall population growth will be much more significant.
The study's lead author Christopher Murray believes that states should not artificially influence the number of children they want in families. Instead, he calls for changes in migration policies in a number of countries.
China's working-age population is projected to decline from 950 million in 2017 to about 360 million by 2100, and India's from 762 million to 580 million.
Study co-author Stein Emil Wallset notes that such changes in population structure will pose new dilemmas for states.
“While population decline is potentially good news in terms of reducing carbon emissions and stress on food systems, economic problems will arise as the number of older people increases and the number of young people decreases. Fewer workers and fewer taxpayers will affect countries' ability to generate the wealth needed to fund social support and health care, ”Wallset says.
According to the forecasts of researchers, the population in Russia will invariably decline and in 2100 it will be about 106 million people. In Ukraine, it will fall from 44.5 million to 17.5 million. The countries with the largest population by 2100 will be India, Nigeria, China, the United States and Pakistan. Today, the top 5 most populated countries on the planet look like this:
China (1.439 billion people)
2. India (1.380 billion)
3. USA (331 million)
4. Indonesia (273.52 million)
5. Pakistan (220.9 million).
According to United Nations forecasts, the world's population will be 10 billion by 2050 and will rise to 11 billion by the end of the century.